Mbatata ndi masamba omwe amapezeka kwambiri ku India. Pakadali pano mbatata zambiri zapakhomo zimadyedwa ngati zatsopano (68%) ndikutsatiridwa (7.5%) ndi mbewu (8.5%). Mbatata yotsalayo 16% imawonongeka chifukwa chakutayika pambuyo pokolola. Komabe, kuchuluka kwa mbatata zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito / kutayidwa chifukwa cha zifukwa zosiyanasiyana zikuyembekezeka kusintha pakanthawi kochepa komanso kwakanthawi.
Mbatata Yatsopano
Kudya kwa mbatata zatsopano kwa munthu aliyense (FAOSTAT) kudakwera kuyambira 1991 mpaka 2010 pa ACGR ya 2.34. Kodi kudya kumeneku kudzakweranso mtsogolo pamlingo womwewo? Kuchulukirachulukira kwakukula kwa zokolola za chimanga, kuphatikizika kwakukulu kwa mbewu zazakudya kuti zidyetse & mafuta amafuta komanso kukwera kwamphamvu kwa anthu omwe amamwa phala, mafuta odyedwa, zipatso, masamba, mkaka, shuga ndi zakudya zopanda zamasamba m'boma. kuchuluka kwa chiwerengero cha anthu kudzachititsa kuti nthaka ikhalepo kale. Popeza, malo olimidwa akuyembekezeka kukhala osasunthika m'zaka 40 zikubwerazi, gawo la mbewu monga mbatata zokhala ndi zokolola zambiri pagawo lililonse komanso nthawi lidzakhala lofunikira. M'menemo mbewu ya mbatata ili ndi kuthekera kwakukulu kothandiza kwambiri pazachitetezo cha chakudya cha mtsogolo.
Kusintha komwe kukuyembekezeredwa pazachuma ku India pakanthawi kochepa komanso kwanthawi yayitali kukuyembekezeka kukulitsa kudya kwa mbatata zatsopano pamunthu aliyense. Mbatata ndi gawo lofunikira pazakudya zambiri zofulumira m'magulu okonzedwa komanso osakhazikika. Kukula kofulumira kwa anthu akumatauni kuchokera pa 375 mpaka 840 miliyoni pazaka 40 zikubwerazi pa ACGR ya 2.04% ikuyembekezeka motsutsana ndi ACGR yonse ya anthu pa 0.78%. Kuchulukirachulukira kwa mabanja ambiri a nyukiliya, ndalama zotayidwa zambiri chifukwa cha kukula kwachuma komwe kukupangitsa kuti azikhala ndi chizolowezi chodyera kunja komanso kukwera mwachangu kwa azimayi ogwira ntchito pakanthawi kochepa akuyembekezeka kusunga ACGR yonse. wa 2.265% pa munthu aliyense kudya mbatata zatsopano. Kufuna kwa munthu aliyense wa mbatata zatsopano pa ACGR iyi kudzakhala 48.5 kg pakapita nthawi yayitali (Table 1). Kufuna kofananirako kwa zakudya za mbatata zatsopano kudzakhala 78.5 miliyoni t mu 2050.
Kukonza Mbatata Yabwino
Gulu 1 Per capita ndi kufunikira kwa chakudya chonse cha mbatata zatsopano
zinthu | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
Pa munthu watsopano (kg) | 19.78 | 23.70 | 29.16 | 37.12 | 48.47 |
Zofuna zapadziko lonse (miliyoni t) | 23.94 | 30.84 | 40.82 | 55.89 | 78.47 |
Gawo la Agri-processing likukula mofulumira kwambiri pamene chuma chikusintha kuchoka pa chitukuko kupita ku chuma chotukuka. Kukwera kwachuma cha India kuchoka pa $ 1.57 kufika pakati pa 13 ndi 34 thililiyoni (muzinthu zosiyanasiyana; kuyerekezera kwa NCAP) sikungatheke popanda kukwera kofanana kwamakampani opanga zinthu zaulimi. Komanso, mbatata nthawi zonse imakhala yotsogola tikamaganizira zazaulimi. Kuwunika kwazomwe zidachitika m'mbuyomu komanso machitidwe amakampani aku India aku India akuwonetsa kuti kufunikira kokonza mbatata yabwino kwazaka 40 zikubwerazi kudzakwera mwachangu kwambiri pama fries aku France (11.6% ACGR) ndikutsatiridwa ndi flakes / ufa (7.6%) ndi tchipisi ta mbatata (4.5%) %). Kufunika kwenikweni kwa mbatata kudzakhala kukwera kuchokera pa 2.8 miliyoni t mu 2010 kufika pa 25 miliyoni t mchaka cha 2050 pa ACGR ya 5.61% (Table 2).
Gulu 2 Kufuna kwazinthu zopangira mafakitale opanga mbatata (mamiliyoni t)
Zogulitsa | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
Chips za mbatata | 2.45 | 5.59 | 9.09 | 12.06 | 14.22 |
Mbatata flakes/ufa | 0.29 | 0.89 | 1.99 | 3.58 | 5.44 |
Zakudya za mbatata zozizira | 0.06 | 0.30 | 1.03 | 2.64 | 5.40 |
Total | 2.80 | 6.78 | 12.11 | 18.28 | 25.06 |
Makampani opanga mbatata kulibe ku India ndipo tsogolo lake ndizovuta kuneneratu chifukwa kulima kwa mbatata m'nyumba kwakanthawi kochepa, zomwe sizikudziwika m'makampani opanga mbatata ku China ndi European Union (omwe akusewera kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi) komanso kugawika kwamitundu yambiri. malo olimidwa ku njira zopezera chakudya m'malo mwa zinthu zamakampani. Komabe, ngati kuchuluka kwa mbatata kumagwiritsidwa ntchito popanga wowuma wa mbatata kapena zinthu zina zamafakitale, ndiye kuti kufunikira kumeneku sikunawerengedwe ndipo kudzakhala kopitilira muyeso.
Chiwerengero chofananira ndi chofunikira pa munthu aliyense wa zinthu zambatata zomwe zakonzedwa panopa komanso mtsogolo zikuwonetsedwa mu tebulo 3. kusinthidwa Kugulitsa mbatata kukuyembekezeka kukwera kuchokera pa 0.7 miliyoni t mu 2010 kufika pa 7.3 miliyoni t mu 2050. Kufunika kofananirako kwa zinthu zambatata zokonzedwa kudzakwera kuchoka pa 0.6 mpaka 4.5 kg (6.03% ACGR) pazaka 40.
Mbatata Mbewu
Gulu 3 Kufuna kwa zinthu za mbatata (matani chikwi)
Chips Chips | Mbatata flakes / ufa | Mbatata flakes / ufa | Total | ||
2010 | Zikwi t | 612 | 52 | 34 | 698 |
Pa munthu g | 506 | 43 | 28 | 577 | |
2020 | Zikwi t | 1398 | 160 | 168 | 1726 |
Pa munthu g | 1080 | 124 | 130 | 1334 | |
2030 | Zikwi t | 2273 | 358 | 556 | 3187 |
Pa munthu g | 1630 | 257 | 399 | 2286 | |
2040 | Zikwi t | 3015 | 644 | 1412 | 5071 |
Pa munthu g | 2007 | 429 | 940 | 3376 | |
2050 | Zikwi t | 3555 | 979 | 2808 | 7342 |
Pa munthu g | 2194 | 604 | 1733 | 4532 |
Malinga ndi FAOSTAT, dziko la India linagwiritsa ntchito machubu a mbatata okwana 2.96 miliyoni (8.5% ya mbatata za dziko lonse) ngati mbewu mu triennium yotha chaka cha 2010. Kuchuluka kwa mbatata zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ngati mbewu kukuyembekezeka kukwera kufika pa 6.1 miliyoni t mchaka cha 2050. Ma tubers omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito ngati mbewu atsika kufika pa 5% ya mbatata za mdziko mu 2050, chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa mbatata zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa.
Kutayika Pambuyo pa Kukolola
Pakali pano mbatata yochuluka (16%) imawonongeka chifukwa chotayika pambuyo pokolola (PHLs) kuposa yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito ngati mbewu (8.5%) kapena pokonza (7.5%). Izi ndizomvetsa chisoni kuti pafupifupi 1 miliyoni t yopitilira mbatata yonse ku Canada kumapeto kwa 2010 (FAOSTAT) idawonongeka ku India. Ngakhale, chifukwa cha kutentha kwanyengo yachilimwe, kusowa kwaukadaulo wosungirako kuzizira komanso mayendedwe ambiri a mbatata kuchokera kumpoto kupita kumadera akumwera ndizomwe zimayambitsa kuwonongeka kwakukulu kwa mbatata mwatsatanetsatane, kuchuluka kwa ma PHL pakukula kwa mbatata mu dzikoli likuyembekezeredwa kukhala lotsika. Ma PHL akuyerekeza kuti atsike kuchoka pa 15.75 mpaka 10% mchaka cha 2050, pomwe kuchuluka kwa ma PHL akuyerekezeredwa pafupifupi 5.5 (panopa), ndi 12 miliyoni t (mu 2050).
Tumizani
Avereji yapachaka ya mbatata zaku India zomwe zatumizidwa m'zaka khumi zapitazi zatsika kapena kuchepera pa 0.1 miliyoni t. Mbatata pokhala chinthu chowonongeka pang'ono komanso cholemera kwambiri paulimi, kutumiza kwake kuchokera ku India sikutsogoleredwa ndi ndondomeko ya nthawi yayitali. Popeza mbatata ndi mbewu yomwe imakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi ndale, njira zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa zimatengedwa kuti mitengo yake ikhale yotsika mtengo kwa ogula wamba. Kutumiza kunja nthawi zambiri kumakhala chida chowongolera zovuta pazaka zakuchulukirachulukira. Komabe, m'misika yapadziko lonse lapansi kugulitsa kunja kungaonjezeke pomanga kukhulupirika ndi kupanga makontrakitala anthawi yayitali. Zikuyembekezeredwa kuti ndondomeko ya chakudya yamtsogolo idzayang'ana kwambiri kuonetsetsa kuti chakudya cha dziko lonse ndi chotsika mtengo cha malonda a agri-commodities chitha kulepheretsedwa. Pazifukwa izi, kukwera kochulukira kwa mbatata zatsopano kuchokera mdziko muno sikutheka. India pokhala dziko lopanga kwambiri mbatata, kukula kwabwino kwa zinthu zambatata zomwe zakonzedwa zikuyembekezeredwa. Komabe, zomwe sizikudziwika komanso zovuta zamtsogolo zapadziko lonse lapansi ndizovuta kuziwunika. Kuphatikiza apo, ngati palibe chithandizo chodziwikiratu kudzera mu ndondomeko yamphamvu yotumiza kunja sikutheka kuyerekeza ndi kugawa zomwe zidzachitike m'tsogolo potumiza zinthu zambatata zomwe zakonzedwa.
Ntchito Zina
Pakali pano sitidyetsa mbatata ku ziweto kotero palibe kuyerekeza komwe kungapangidwe pakugwiritsa ntchito izi mtsogolo. Komabe, ngati kuchuluka kwa mbatata kumagwiritsidwa ntchito ngati chakudya cha ziweto, ndiye kuti zikhala zochulukirapo kuposa zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa.
Kufuna Kwambata kwathunthu
Kufunika kwa mbatata ku India kukuyembekezeka kukwera kufika pa 122 miliyoni t mchaka cha 2050. Kufunika kwa mbatata zokonzedwa bwino kudzakwera kwambiri ndipo gawo lawo lazakudya zapakhomo lidzakwera kuchoka pa 7.5% mu triennium kumapeto kwa 2010 mpaka 20.5% mu 2050 (Table 4). Poganizira ukonde zoweta kupereka chiwerengero cha mbatata
Gulu 4 Kufunika kwa mbatata mochenjera (miliyoni t)
chaka | Kufuna$ | mwatsopano | processing | Mbewu | Sungani |
2010 | 35.23 | 23.94 | 2.8 | 2.96 | 5.53 |
(100 | (68.21 | (7.61 | (8.43 | (15.75 | |
2020 | 47.91 | 30.84 | 6.78 | 3.55 | 6.74 |
(100 | (64.37 | (14.15 | (7.41 | (14.07 | |
2030 | 65.39 | 40.82 | 12.11 | 4.25 | 8.21 |
(100 | (62.43 | (18.52 | (6.5 | (12.56 | |
2040 | 89.26 | 55.89 | 18.28 | 5.09 | 10 |
(100 | (62.61 | (20.48 | (5.7 | (11.2 | |
2050 | 121.81 | 78.47 | 25.06 | 6.1 | 12.18 |
(100 | (64.42 | (20.57 | (5.01 | (10 |
Zindikirani: Ziwerengero za m'mabala ndi maperesenti; $: Zofunikira zapakhomo zomwe zimayikidwa pambewu ndikuwonongeka chifukwa chakuwonongeka pambuyo pokolola zidzachepa pang'onopang'ono mtsogolomo. Kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka mbatata pokonza kumachepetsa pang'ono kuchuluka kwa mbatata zatsopano ngati chakudya pofika 2050.