1. Kapangidwe ka Mbatata Zaku Uzbekistan (Zaka Zaposachedwa)
Ku Uzbekistan kumafuna mbatata pafupifupi 4 miliyoni t pachaka, pomwe zokolola zapakhomo zimafika pakati pa 3.2 ndi 3.7 miliyoni t. Kusiyanaku kudadzadza ndi zinthu zomwe zikukula mwachangu kuchokera kunja zomwe zidakwera kuchokera pansi pa 50 000 t mu 2016 mpaka pafupifupi:
| chaka | Zotengera zochokera kunja | Othandizira akuluakulu (otsika mtengo) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | ≈ 421 000 t | Kazakhstan, Iran, Pakistan |
| 2021 | ≈ 500 000 t | Kazakhstan (~128 000 t), Iran (~127 000 t), Pakistan (~100 000 t) |
| 2022 | ≈ 450 000 t | Pakistan (~258 t), Kazakhstan (~000 t), Kyrgyzstan, Russia |
| 2023 | ≈ 520 000 t | Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan |
| 2024 | ≈ 703 000 t | Kazakhstan (~520 000 t), Pakistan (~111 000 t), Kyrgyzstan (~71 000 t) |
Nyengo
- Januwale-Meyi: mbatata zam'deralo ndizochepa; Mbewu zatsopano zanyengo yozizira ku Pakistan zimakonda kugulitsa kunja ndikutsitsa mitengo.
- June-August: Zokolola za m'deralo zimakwaniritsa zofunikira; zogulitsa kunja zimatsika pang'ono.
- September–February: Zomera za m’dzinja ku Kazakhstan zimakhala gwero lalikulu lakunja; ma volume amawukanso.
Gawo la Russia silidutsa pang'ono peresenti ndipo lakhala likucheperachepera.
2. Zinthu Zopikisana
| Zochitika | Russia | Kazakhstan | Pakistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mtengo & mtengo | Mtengo wokwera wopangira; ulendo wautali; nthawi zambiri amapikisana pamitengo. | Mtengo wotsika; zoyendera zotsika mtengo kudutsa malire; amapereka ~US $80 / t m'zaka zokolola zambiri. | Mtengo wotsika kwambiri; mbewu ziwiri m'madera ena; akhoza kuchepetsa msika ndikuchepetsa kukwera kwamitengo. |
| Nyengo | Kukolola kwa autumn; zochepa zotuluka kunja m'nyengo yozizira. | Kukolola kwa autumn; katundu wamkulu kunja mu autumn / dzinja; kusungirako kumawonjezera nyengo mpaka masika. | Kukolola kwa dzinja/kasupe; zabwino pakusowa kwa Uzbekistan Feb-Meyi. |
| Kuthekera kosungirako | Malo okwanira koma amapereka msika wapakhomo poyamba. | Mphamvu yosungira ikukula mwachangu, ndikupangitsa kutumiza kunja kwa chaka chonse. | Zosungirako zozizira zochepa; nthawi zambiri zimatumizidwa pambuyo pokolola. |
| mmene kukumana | Njira yayitali ya njanji kudzera ku Kazakhstan. | Malire amtunda mwachindunji; mtunda waufupi kwambiri wamalori/njanji. | 1 500 km msewu kudutsa Afghanistan; mitengo imatsika ngati njanji ya Termez-Kabul-Peshawar itatsegulidwa (chandamale 2027). |
| Mfundo zamalonda | Palibe zokonda zapadera; zilango zimakweza mtengo. | Tsekani mgwirizano wachigawo koma womwe umakonda kuletsa kutumiza kunja kwadzidzidzi. | Kukula kwa mgwirizano wandale ndi malonda ndi Uzbekistan; zotchinga zochepa za tariff. |
| Udindo wa msika ku Uzbekistan | Pamphepete (≤ 5%). | Pakali pano (mpaka 74 % mu 2024). | Wotsutsa wamkulu; yadutsa 50% m'nyengo zapamwamba. |
3. Mphamvu Zakunja
- Zolangidwa & Geopolitics. Zilango zaku Western zimakweza ndalama zaku Russia ndikusunthira chidwi chake mkati, kufooketsa mphamvu zake zotumiza kunja.
- Kusakhazikika kwanyengo. Zaka za chilala zidadula zokolola za Kazakhstan, kutsegulira malo ogulitsa aku Pakistani; kusefukira kwa madzi ku Pakistan kungathe kuchita mosiyana.
- Ntchito za zomangamanga. Sitima yapamtunda ya Termez-Kabul-Peshawar yomwe ikukonzekera ikhoza kuchepetsa mitengo ya katundu ku Pakistan-Uzbekistan ndi ~ 40% ndi masiku-paulendo ndi asanu, ndikuwononga malire a Kazakhstan.
- Ndondomeko ya Uzbek yodzikwanira. Tashkent ikufuna kukwaniritsa zofuna zapakhomo pofika 2027 kudzera pa zokolola zambiri komanso kusungirako kuzizira kwambiri. Ngakhale kuchita bwino pang'ono kungachepetse chitumbuwa chomwe aliyense wogulitsa akumenyana nacho.
4. Chiyembekezo cha Zaka zisanu
- Russia. Gawo lake ndilochepa kale ndipo likhoza kutha kwathunthu (<10 % mwayi wobwereranso).
- Pakistan vs Kazakhstan.
- Mlandu woyambira (chotheka kwambiri). Zogulitsa kunja zimakhalabe pafupifupi 0.3-0.5 miliyoni t pachaka. Pakistan imalimbitsa kagawo kake ka dzinja/kasupe ndikutenga 30–50 % ya zinthu zonse zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja, pomwe Kazakhstan ili ndi 40-60 % chifukwa cha kuyandikira ndi kusungirako ndalama.
- Zochitika za Pro‑Pakistan (≈ 30 % kuthekera). Sitima yatsopanoyi imatsegulidwa pa nthawi yake, Kazakhstan ikukumana ndi zokolola zochepa kapena ziwiri, ndipo otumiza kunja aku Pakistani amawongolera kayendetsedwe kabwino. Gawo la Pakistan likukwera pamwamba pa 60% pofika 2029, ndikuyika Kazakhstan pamalo achiwiri.
- Zochitika za Pro-Kazakhstan (≈ 20%). Mbewu zamphamvu za ku Kazakh ndi kubwereza ziletso zotumiza kunja zachotsedwa mwachangu; Kusokonekera kwa mayendedwe ku Afghanistan kudawononga Pakistan. Kazakhstan imasunga 70-80 % ya msika.
- Osewera ena. Kyrgyzstan, Iran ndi Afghanistan zikuchulukirachulukira koma zikhalabe othandizira.
- Zopanga zam'nyumba zakutchire. Ngati Uzbekistan ingakwaniritse cholinga chake chodzidalira, zotuluka kunja zitha kutsika, kukakamiza Pakistan ndi Kazakhstan kumenyera msika wotsalira wocheperako.
Zotsatira: Mbatata zaku Pakistani zikuyenera kukhala mtsogoleri wamsika waku Uzbekistan, ndikuchotsa zogulitsa kunja kwa Russia ndikugawana munda ndi Kazakhstan. Kulanda kwathunthu ndikotheka koma kumatengera kukweza kwazinthu komanso kutulutsa kwa Kazakh; Mapeto omveka bwino ndi mpikisano wa akavalo awiri komwe Pakistan imalamulira nyengo yachisanu-kasupe ndi Kazakhstan m'dzinja-dzinja, pomwe Uzbekistan imadula pang'onopang'ono katundu wamba pomwe zokolola zake zimakwera.
Zokonzedwa ndi data komanso kusanthula kuchokera: Komiti ya State Statistics ya Uzbekistan; EastFruit (2020 - 2025 zazidule zamsika); Kun.uz, Daryo, Kursiv.kz malipoti; kutulutsa kovomerezeka kwa Ministries of Agriculture ku Uzbekistan ndi Kazakhstan; kufalitsa nkhani za njanji ya Termez-Kabul-Peshawar; ndi ziwerengero za FAO ndi UN Comtrade zopezeka poyera.
